Does availability of wine in more retail outlets increase the consumption of wine? This is the latest battle raging with our opponents.
We say yes it will. They say no it will not.
We have the technology to answer this question.
Here’s what we are going to review:
- Border states — Do they allow or prohibit wine sales in food stores?
- Avg. # of retail outlets — This is all outlets that sell wine in border states, including liquor and food stores.
- Adult population per store – This number is based on the adult population in a state.
- Per capita consumption of wine — This is the best measure of actual wine consumption. The National Institutes of Health publishes this data.
- BONUS: Per capita alcohol arrests — This is data straight from the FBI about the number of people arrested for DUI, liquor law offenses, and public drunkenness. We’re throwing this in as a treat.
Let’s go to the data.
1) Border states.
There are eight of them. Three prohibit sales in food stores. Five allow it.
| Wine sales? | No | Yes |
|---|---|---|
| States | AR, KY, and MS | AL, GA, MO, NC, and VA |
2) Average number of retail outlets per state.
This total takes into account all stores that sell wine. It’s easy to see that allowing wine sales increases the average number of stores. Nothing big to see, so let’s go to step 3.
| Wine sales? | No | Yes |
|---|---|---|
| States | AR, KY, and MS | AL, GA, MO, NC, and VA |
| Avg. # of retail outlets for wine | 500.3 | 7139.4 |
3) Adult population per store
Here’s where it starts to get interesting. Not every state has the exact same adult population, so we need an average number of outlets per adult. States without wine sales have 5,500 adults per store compared with 883 adults per store in states that allow sales. Tennessee is far below the average at 8,531 adults per outlet. That’s staggering.
| Wine sales? | No | Yes |
|---|---|---|
| States | AR, KY, and MS | AL, GA, MO, NC, and VA |
| Avg. # of retail outlets for wine | 500.3 | 7139.4 |
| Adult population per retail outlet | 5,511.5 | 882.9 |
4) Per capita consumption
Our opponents’ argument will hold true if per capita consumption is the same in both categories. If not, we win.
Guess what? We win. Per capita consumption is nearly double in states with more retail outlets selling wine. Thus, we can connect the dots and say that more stores equals more consumption.
| Wine sales? | No | Yes |
|---|---|---|
| States | AR, KY, and MS | AL, GA, MO, NC, and VA |
| Avg. # of retail outlets for wine | 500.3 | 7139.4 |
| Adult population per retail outlet | 5511.5 | 882.9 |
| Per capita consumption of wine | .16 | .31 |
5) Alcohol arrests in 2009
Because we always aim to please, we’ve added some bonus data about alcohol arrests.
Surely, arrests must increase with more retail outlets. Quite the contrary, the number of arrests in 2009 were 53% higher in states that prohibit sales. It’s been more every year since 2005. And, don’t call us Shirley.
| Wine sales? | No | Yes |
|---|---|---|
| States | AR, KY, and MS | AL, GA, MO, NC, and VA |
| Avg. # of retail outlets for wine | 500.3 | 7139.4 |
| Adult population per retail outlet | 5511.5 | 882.9 |
| Per capita consumption of wine | .16 | .31 |
| Per capita liquor arrests | 638.2 | 416.3 |
March 3rd, 2011
YOU NEGLECTED TO TALK ABOUT THE 10 STATES
THAT DO NOT HAVE WINE IN GROCERY STORES THAT ALL HAVE HIGHER PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION THAN TENNESSEE. (AK, CO, CN, DE,
MN, NY, ND, PN, RI, AND WY).
DOESN’T THIS SAY THAT -ALL STATES CONSIDERED – THERE IS NO CORRELATION BETWEEN WINE/NO WINE AND PERCAPITA CONSUMPTION. THEREFORE YOUR ” CONSUMPTION GROWTH” CLAIM IS BOGUS????
March 3rd, 2011
Thanks for your comment. No need to yell. Our post made it clear the comparison is with the eight states bordering Tennessee. We made this comparison because the liquor industry has suggested we’re manipulating data by using states not bordering Tennessee to make our case. We’re just responding to that criticism. We think the comparison and the findings are far from bogus. Thanks again for your comment.
March 3rd, 2011
P.S. Just to be clear, we compared all states that allow wine sales in food stores to all states that prohibit wine sales. Consumption on average is 23% higher in states allowing sales. Just more facts.
April 7th, 2011
[...] Impact of availability on alcohol crimes in bordering states [...]