That’s the response from one liquor store owner about the economic impact study that Red White and Food released several weeks ago.
It’s pretty much the response we expected.
Here’s the point: our opponents have presented no evidence of any kind to support their argument. None. Nada. Zip.
Their retorts range from “we don’t think that’s true” to the title of this blog post.
Our estimates of 25-55 percent market growth are far from made up. So, how exactly did we arrive at these figures?
Since Tennessee has never changed this law, the state doesn’t have any data. What we have to do is look at other states where wine sales are allowed in food stores. And then you look at actual consumption of wine by the residents living in those states.
The consumption statistics our researchers chose are from the National Institute of Health. They date all the way back to 1978, so we have some really good data.
The next steps is to pick comparable comparisons. The first comparison we selected is Georgia. The state allows wine sales in food stores. And, it’s the next highest border state in terms of consumption.
If Tennessee’s consumption rose to the level of Georgia, the wine market would grow 25 percent. That’s is the smallest amount we believe the market will grow. Coincidentally, that level of growth would also raise Tennessee’s market to the average of the eight states that surround us.
The high end of our range uses the entire Southern region as identified by the U.S. Census. The southern district includes 14 states that stretch from Deleware down to Florida and across the Oklahoma. We didn’t make up the district, but it does include seven of the eight border states.
If Tennessee’s consumption rose to the Southern average, the wine market would grow 55 percent.
And that’s no lie.